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  1. wholesale designers jewelry What is the surging news reporter Chen Yuxi, who is two years old than rabbits
    "I played a card page game when I was in my freshman year, and spent 10,000 yuan. ", Spent 30,000. Now it is playing" Three Kingdoms · Fantasy ", which costs 35,000, that is."
    The 27 -year game enthusiast Zhang Peng, roughly calculated the past few years. "The cost of the game. "Six or seven loading together, it cost a total of 100,000, ten times more than a non -drawing game."
    Why are the card games so good "氪"? Its core gameplay is to pay a certain cash or cash in exchange for game coins, to come to the items/roles in the "card pool", in order to enhance performance. The items in the "Card Pond" are not selected by Ren Jun, but a random appearance, and the value and the probability of appearance are usually inversely proportional.
    This is a tips for manufacturers to promote players' consumption in psychologically. Simply put, players do not necessarily get what they want, but under the psychological expectations of "the next one may be drawn", it is easy to fall into a state of spending money.
    The overseas, spending money with random extraction is also called "open box" or "Loot Boxes".
    The quality game is incomparable, random is also the basic element of game design, but the "open box" linked to money has its speciality. There is a certain probability, which is addicted to addicted. At present, the reason for randomly extraction and separation of the link game is that randomly extracted items cannot be returned to money, but with the rise of the transaction, incorporating the "open box" is not alarmist.
    The surging news reporter noticed that in Europe, many countries have explored many countries to incorporate the "open box" game into the framework of relevant regulations to warn the association of "open box" and study its impact on minors.
    It in the East Asian environment, it has the cultural foundation of "Gacha" and "Blind Box", and the acceptance of "opening the box" is relatively high. However, the "opening box" gameplay is full of influence on the development and innovation of gameplay by the game industry.
    The money -making effect of opening the box
    Why the "opening box" gameplay is so commonly added in the game, which is related to its money -making effect, especially on the premise of good quality of the game, for the game, the game is the game. The ability to attract gold is even more fire. The game "Original God" that became popular last year was a typical case.
    In data analysis Sensor TOWER statistics, since the global release on September 28, 2022, the "original God" mobile terminal has attracted more than $ 1 billion in 6 months.
    The, "Selda: The Interest of the Wild", this Switch classic game released in March 2022. As of the end of September of that year The total amount of gold in 6 months has $ 2.80 million.
    Why are the "original God" more profitable? This is not only the differences between the two, but the fundamental reason is that the business is different. "Zelda: The Interest of the Wild" is to buy out, "The original God" is to buy in -game in -game, and introduce the "open box" gameplay: constantly launching new game characters, you need to draw on players.
    In "Original God", the new character/item is called "prayer". The basic probability of 5 stars (referring to higher levels in the game) roles and items is 0.6%. In order to encourage players to consume, "The original God" prompts that every ten times to pray for four stars or more characters, which is called "bottom".

    Ifly according to the probability of praying for the original god, the basic output of the 5 -star character praying for the prayer of the novice is 0.600%; The outbound rate (including the bottom) is 13.000%, and up to 10 prayers must be able to obtain 4 or more characters through the guarantee
    Sensor Tower commented that since the listing, the game has frequently launched a new version, adding a new role to the game content to add a new role And activity. The release of each new character brings a wave of income growth to the game. On the day of the new character Cutao on March 2, the "original god" mobile end revenue of nearly $ 13 million. On February 3, the new character appeared, and the mobile terminal revenue exceeded $ 15 million on the day. In comparison, since the game is listed, the average daily income of mobile terminals is $ 5.8 million.
    "The success of the original God" is inseparable from continuous operating investment. "Sensor Tower concluded.
    "Original God" is just one of the successful practitioners of this gameplay. The opening of the box can be traced back to "Zhengtu", and there are also 2022 phenomenal mobile game "Division". "Teacher" extracts the characters in the pool, and is divided into SSR, SR, S, and R level according to the ability value. Good luck, players with SSR are nicknamed "Emperor Emperor", and players with poor hands will laugh at "non -chiefs" by themselves, which has become part of the game culture.

    In the probability of random gameplay in the "Division" mobile game, the probability of calling R, SR, SSR, and SP -level gods are: R level 78.75%, SR level 20%, SSR Step 1%
    , after this, random extraction gameplay appears more commonly on mobile games, such as "Fate/Grand Order" and "Three Kingdoms · Strategic Edition". Mainstream tour charges.
    Talking about the extraction experience of such games, the gamer Zhang Peng said: "Some planning for your money, he is very hardworking, and the new card is made every month. The strength of the new card is relatively high. Pick up a wave every month. "
    " Most of the (games) on the market use this to make profits. "Independent player Wang Yi told the surging news reporter," If the game does not have this set of money to make money Things, it is difficult to make a profit, it is difficult to maintain survival. There are many people who do not do this system, and there are many people doing this system but not to profit. But relatively speaking, you may not be able to see them, or only stay in one In the small circle. "
    The principle of addiction
    The secrets of random extraction gameplay make people constantly" gold "? There are exquisite psychological design behind this.
    Stkina, a US behavior psychologist, has designed a set of "Skinner Box" experiments to put a white rat or a pigeon in the box. When the animal presses the leverage, the food will be Fall into the box. Soon animals learned to press the leverage. This reveals the relationship between rewards and behavior.
    Next, put a pigeon or rats in the box. When the leverage is pressed, the food is dropped probably, and the frequency of the animal pressing the leverage has increased significantly. When the food no longer drops, the disappearance of the behavior is very slow. This experiment is often used to explain the "addiction" mechanism.
    Mu Jiang, director of the material addiction department of the Shanghai Mental Health Center, told the surging news reporter, "In the Skinna box experiment, under such random rewards, the frequency of pigeons will increase significantly. It has been confirmed in the experiment that random and non -fixed rewards can even trigger an individual to engage in this behavior. "
    . Therefore, the Skinna box experiment was written into the" addiction to allow users to develop the product logic of product logic. In various product design guidelines such as "Behavior Addiction", it is a necessary knowledge for interconnected companies and game company product design.
    In addition to behavioral experiments, Du Jiang introduced, there are some experiments to verify from biological mechanism verification Random rewards can more stimulate dopamine: let the monkey look at the lights on the screen, give the monkey sugar water when the red light is on, there is no sugar water when the green light is on, and the process of recorded the monkey dopamine with the number. When the sugar water is given to the monkey, the monkey has a dopamine. The
    experiments to do one step down: increase the blue light, when the blue light is on, only 50%of the chances of the monkey will sugar water, which means that it means The reward is intermittently randomly appeared. Studies found that when the blue light is on, the monkey dopamine will advance, and the peak will be higher.
    "This means that the blue light, that is, the non -fixed reward, will make the monkey even more Release dopamine in a higher place to produce a stronger sense of pleasure. "Du Jiang said.
    The experiments may be explained to a certain extent. Why many players" 氪 "and experienced the fun of random rewards," can't go back. " Dispute
    is also because of the facts of money and its addiction. Some opinions believe that the "opening box" gameplay has the nature of the type. The gameplay discussion is one of the in -depth.
    In October 2022, the Children's for England released a report on the minors of 10 to 16 years old, and learned about the impact of the game on them by talking about the game.
    The report specifically for "Gaming and Gambling" (game and). The report shows that the amount of children's expenditure in the game increases year by year, and the design of the game also encourages consumption, such as the loot box. "This is like the same. If you spend money, you may not get good things, or you may be particularly good. "16 -year -old FIFA player Tim said.

    The child's view of the child cited in the report of the English Children's Association
    Nick," You feel that this is a waste of money, but You continue to open more boxes. "
    The report pointed out that due to the lack of determined purchase behaviors, children will feel the possibility of imitation of money, but the possibility of good returns and making children feel difficult to control their expenses. Generally speaking Children do not have effective strategies to manage their online expenditures. "In view of the fact that children's offline life is not allowed at all, the emergence of online life needs to be close. "The report said.
    further, there is a sound request to include" open box "into the framework of the regulations.
    December 2022, according to the British Guardian report, the British House of Commons suggested that the game should be given the game. The "Lot Boxes" (Lot Boxes) is considered and purchased by children. The report said that this "loot box" gameplay "was designed as a psychological mechanism related to behavior. "DCMS, Damian Collins, said:" Spending money to open a box is a game of playing probability. We asked to explain why the loot boxes are not subject to "Fa". ”rn 2022 年1月,英国服务体系(NHS)从精神卫生角度对“开箱子”提出了担忧。NHS精神卫生主管克莱尔·默多克(Claire Murdoch)向游戏公司警告称,这些The gaming company is a risk of making children addicted to build the "task" in the game.
    NHS also mentioned that the current "open box" is not yet classified in the current British. Because the props that "open boxes" have no way to exchange money into money, despite this, in eBay, it is still easy to find and rare props. This exacerbates the "open box" to players. R nThis on the age classification of the game, the probability of the announcement of the extraction, etc., and become a response measure proposed by all parties.
    DCMS reports put forward suggestions: if "loot box" is just a reward in the game, then no management, if " "Boxing box" is to buy with money, so the game should be at least marked with the content and age of age.
    NHS calls for: first, selling "open boxes" games that encourage children to participate, the other is to introduce fairness and reality The expenditure restrictions to prevent people from splurge in such games. Third, before the user "open the box", the chance of the item is explicitly informed by the user.
    In many voices, in June 2022, the United Kingdom in the UK, Britain The report of the British digital, culture, media and sports (DCMS) reported a response.
    The United Kingdom said that it had been announced in December 2022 to conduct the "Gambling Act 2005" It focuses on solving the problem of war -stricular boxes. In order to ensure that it is based on a deep understanding of the problem, a collection of evidence collection activities for loot boxes will be initiated. This will be used to check the scale, operating mechanism, and consumers of this market. (Especially young people) influence, including the problem with the problem.
    The British show that the above -mentioned evidence collection activities on the opening of the box have been held from September 23, 2022 to November 22, 2022. R n
    The Lot Boxes in Video Games -Call for Evidence
    In addition to the United Kingdom, there was a voice in the United States to make restrictions on the gameplay gameplay. In 20122, the United States Senator Josh Hawley proposed the "Children from Abusive Games Act", requiring the game company to use economic punishment to a children's war box under 18 years old. Koen Geens announced the results of Gaming's investigation of the game "Box". The investigation found that "Overwatch", "Anti -Terrorist Elite: Global Offensive" and "F" and "F" The three popular games of IFA18 violate Belgium's law. Belgium will decide that game publishers need "loot boxes" in the game, otherwise they will face fines.
    The "Guardian" report pointed out that Belgium's position is to make more harmless money than applying the principle in the game.
    How
    Compared with the previous few, my country ’s random extraction gameplay is at the forefront. As early as 2022, it was clearly required to propose the probability of publicity.
    In 2022, with the fire of "Division", the Ministry of Hua issued the "Notice of Standardizing the Operation of the Game Operation and Strengthening the Work", and proposed that the collateral game operation enterprise provides virtual props and value -added services by random extraction methods. Users are required to participate in the way that virtual currencies are directly invested in legal currencies or collateral games.
    At the same time, the "Notice" also stipulates that the link game operation enterprise shall promptly announce the name, performance, content, quantity, quantity, quantity, and synthesis of all virtual props and value -added services that may be extracted or synthesized in the game Probability. The publicized random extraction of relevant information should be true and effective.
    , for the previous one, the game company started on the words "direct investment". In order to avoid "direct investment in legal currency or network virtual currency", game companies often set up several exchange processes.
    The "original god" as an example, praying (drawing card) needs to consume the fate of encounter/entanglement, the fate of encounter/entanglement needs to consume rough stones, the original stone needs to be redeemed for the creation of the world, the crystallization needs to use money to use money Buy -although after several exchanges, the essence of random extraction has not changed: pay a certain amount of props/characters with random probability.

    The paid system of "Original God", 648 yuan to purchase 6480 creation crystals, which can be exchanged for 6480 original stones. 1600 original stones can be exchanged for 10 entanglement, for praying for 10 times
    For the latter one, that is, the probability of publicity is required to publicize random extraction. The game company has announced the corresponding probability.
    But it is difficult for players to verify the authenticity of probability: The game company has no obligation code, and it is difficult for players to verify the accuracy of probability through unlimited extraction.
    The surging news reporters noticed that indeed some players used the historical prayer records provided by the original God, and designed the program to capture themselves, thereby calculating the probability of drawing different star characters/weapons. "Original God" once could only query the historical record of 1 month, and then changed to 6 months.
    Mu Liang, an assistant researcher at the Shanghai Institute of Literature, put forward the concept of type capital and digital play in "Mobile Game Industry: Capital and Digital Playing".
    He said that the technical power of the formula dependence on the hand determines the game setting of gameplay, character image, character ability, and unpacking probability. However, it is difficult for players to discuss and dialogue on the above issues.
    How to manage in the future and how to adapt to new forms? It is worthwhile that according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the management functions of the link game have been transferred. According to the "Legal Daily" reported in early January 2022, the "Guoh Game Regulations" are drafting, from the perspective of the top -level design to regulate all aspects of the link game industry, and further improve the management system of the collateral game.
    The mainstream is justice?
    In random extraction is becoming more and more common, there are indeed gamers who enjoy the sense of "random" very much, and think about this gameplay, the game company is also happy to see it The most mainstream charges.
    In insiders of a small and medium -sized game company explained to the surging news reporter's rationality of the "random extraction gameplay": If the price of all/characters is clearly marked, then the price of props/characters must be higher than ordinary models, and it may be possible. "Excited."
    "This is a result, as long as rich players spend money, they will definitely form a team of 'hanging' white players. The weak meat and strong food. "
    The person said:" The problem of solving the card to make the game looks more balanced. For example, the rare card drop rate is low, but some lucky players are drawn by 10, and the tyrant may be 100 Can't draw it, so the drawing card solves the problem of fairness, so that the tyrant players can not win if they are not just gold. "
    In his opinion, the requirements for such gameplay are mainly to announce the probability of extraction of extraction. , But he also pointed out that "some games do have a secret rate of explosion."
    but the emergence of "guarantee", re -let this type of game becomes Pay to Win: As long as you spend money, you can be stronger. The "guarantee" mechanism refers to ensuring that the player can definitely be a rare and degree of character/prop after a certain number of times.
    The game player Zhang Peng said that a game he is now playing is 40 insured bottom: spend 400 yuan for 40 times, which can "guarantee a five -star."
    "When I get more, the more I want him to maintain this way, I have charged 3,000 yuan. Why can't I fight for 6 yuan in the past?" Zhang Peng bluntly said.
    Anyway, from the "opening of the box" to the "guarantee" mechanism, this belongs to the innovation of game business, not the substantial innovation in gameplay.
    Irds in the perspective of Dr. Boya, the School of Journalism and Communication, these random extraction games are generally belonging to the numerical value games. It is essentially a set of numerical systems. It is allocated and read by different players.
    The things that "open the box" are essentially data: the equipment you get is not only the middle of the game, but also a string of values. Different equipment represents the difference in numerical distribution.
    "Once the value becomes the only important thing, gold will become inevitable because the value will become a carrier of profit circulation." Deng Jian said.
    In his opinion, the domestic game design method centered on numerical competition, although it meets the requirements of capital appreciation, is only a historical stage. "Any gameplay has the day of exiting the mainstream gameplay. When such a set of game design methods driven by numerical, everyone feels that it is not fun, and there will be new gameplay to the mainstream."
    Deng Jian quoted quoting The view of the Professor of Japan ’s Liming Museum University and the Japanese Village of the Japanese Video Game Research Association, believes that the innovation advantages of the Chinese gaming industry are mainly reflected in business innovation. "In the early 2000s, China's game industry had insufficient design power, mainly doing games, Chinese game companies became peace, they better know how to make the game into a meta -products, rather than connotative game works. The equipment in the game (ITEM) is commercialized, and the box is also this logic. "Deng Jian said," When Chinese manufacturers have exerted business innovation to the extreme, they become 'opening boxes'. It's easier to make money. "
    Deng Jian pointed out that when gamers are tired of being too golden -golden games," you can't get new games and new ways to become a fatal problem. The game industry should be There is such a consciousness. "
    The editor Zhou Yuhua

    The above is what related content is two years old than the rabbit. It is a sharing of probability calculation. After watching the sophomore students, I hope this will help everyone!

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